Niger’s army turns on Tiani

The silence that has returned to the streets of Niamey should not deceive anyone. The battle is over, but the political war is just beginning.

In the night of 28 to 29 August, Nigerien soldiers attempted to overthrow the regime of General Abdourahamane Tiani. The attack, which involved troops from units engaged on various fronts across the country, targeted strategic installations in the capital, notably Air Base 101 and areas close to the presidential palace. For several hours, the power structure teetered on the brink.

To save his regime, Tiani had to call on his Russian allies. Fighters from Africa Corps, the successor to the Wagner Group in Africa, intervened alongside loyalist Nigerien forces. They helped recapture the air base and neutralise the mutinous soldiers. The Nigerien army regained control of the base with the support of Russian paramilitary forces.

This is the major political fact of this crisis: Nigerien soldiers were fought on Nigerien soil with the direct backing of Russian forces deployed to protect a regime that came to power through the 2023 coup.

Yet the junta had made national sovereignty its primary argument for expelling French and American forces.

Sovereignty with double standards

For years, Tiani and his supporters told Nigeriens that the French military presence was a humiliation and an affront to national sovereignty. The French soldiers left. The Americans were asked to depart. Western military agreements were denounced. The regime’s propaganda could then proclaim that Niger had finally regained its full independence.

But an awkward question now arises: what was the point of driving out the French military if, a few years later, the government must call on Russian troops to save the presidential seat? This question is all the more explosive because the Russians did not come to defend Nigerien territory against jihadist groups. They came to help the regime repel Nigerien soldiers who threatened it.

The symbolism is devastating. Nigerien soldiers have been dying for years in the Sahel’s war zones. They fight the Islamic State and JNIM, suffer heavy losses, and regularly denounce their combat conditions. The Niamey mutiny seems to have been fuelled by this accumulated frustration among units that face jihadist violence daily. And when these same soldiers turn against the regime, it is the Russians who come to fight them.

What sovereignty remains when a national government can no longer ensure its own survival without foreign protection?

The rift between Tiani and his army

The mutiny of 29 August is probably the most serious warning sign Tiani has received since coming to power. The issue is not just that soldiers attempted to overthrow him. The problem is that they were able to do so even though Niger officially has a considerable security apparatus. Moreover, the dissent seems to have found fertile ground within the ranks of the regular army itself.

Soldiers deployed on the front lines pay the highest price in this war. They see their comrades fall. They face material hardships. They witness jihadist attacks continuing despite the junta’s promises. Since 2023, Tiani promised to restore security and return dignity to Niger. Three years later, jihadist violence remains a major threat, and Nigerien forces continue to suffer significant losses.

It is in this context that part of the army seems to be questioning whether the regime has drifted away from those actually fighting on the ground. The Russian intervention may have turned this frustration into hatred. A Nigerien soldier can accept dying to defend his country. He can endure deprivation and sacrifice in the name of the nation. But it will be much harder for him to accept that foreigners come to shoot at him to protect a political regime.

Tiani: from Bazoum’s overthrower to Moscow’s protégé

The historical irony is dizzying. In July 2023, Tiani seized power claiming he wanted to save Niger from a political system incapable of guaranteeing the security of its citizens. He overthrew Mohamed Bazoum, a democratically elected president, pretending to end the failures of civilian rule. Now, three years later, his own regime requires foreign fighters to withstand a military revolt.

The trajectory is hard to ignore. Tiani came to power through a coup. He now maintains himself in power thanks to a security apparatus with a crucial Russian component. In other words, the man who claimed to free Niger from foreign tutelage appears to have replaced Western dependence with Russian dependence. It is precisely this contradiction that could become the regime’s Achilles’ heel.

Looking back to July 2023, when Tiani toppled Bazoum, France still had over a thousand soldiers in Niger. Paris supported the elected president and, under certain circumstances, contemplated an operation to help free him. Bazoum’s associates had requested French intervention. According to reports at the time, an operation was considered, but Bazoum ultimately favoured dialogue and refused direct French military involvement.

That decision now belongs to history. But a question remains: if Bazoum had accepted the French intervention, would Tiani have succeeded in his coup? No one can rewrite history with certainty. However, it is entirely legitimate to note that Tiani benefited from that hesitation. The elected president remained imprisoned in the presidential palace while the junta progressively consolidated its grip on the state apparatus. The most ironic part is that today, the man who denounced the French presence in Niger is calling on a foreign power to save his own regime.

Algeria enters the fray

As if the Russian presence were not enough, Algeria has just taken a significant step. After the attempted overthrow of Tiani, Algiers deployed military assets to Niamey, including combat and transport aircraft. This decision marks a major shift in Algerian doctrine, which had long been marked by reluctance to commit forces beyond its borders.

Algeria ultimately did not have to fight the mutineers, as they had already been repelled with Russian help. But the message was clear: Tiani would no longer be alone. Moscow provides military protection to the regime. Algiers now offers strategic support. And the junta can present this encirclement as proof that Niger has found new allies.

Yet behind this show of force lies a troubling question: how many foreign powers will be needed to protect a government that appears to be losing the support of part of its own army?

The volcano beneath the barracks

The mutiny of 29 August may not be an isolated incident; it could be the first symptom of a much deeper rupture. Russian weapons allowed Tiani to win a battle. They did not resolve the frustrations of Nigerien soldiers. They did not destroy the jihadist groups. They did not bring back dead soldiers from the front. They did not reconcile the troops with the regime. They merely allowed the government to survive an initial overthrow attempt.

And that is precisely where the danger lies for Tiani. A regime can control a palace with foreign help. It can retake a military base. It can arrest mutineers. But it cannot indefinitely govern against an army that is beginning to perceive its own leadership as dependent on a foreign power.

General Tiani should therefore look beyond the walls of his palace. The real danger to his regime may lie neither in Paris, nor Washington, nor any of the Western capitals he regularly accuses of plotting against him. It could be found in Nigerien barracks. And if the soldiers who saw their comrades fall to foreign bullets decide one day to settle scores with those they accuse of handing their country to Moscow, the next mutiny could be far harder to contain.

The Russians can protect Tiani. Algeria can offer support. But no foreign power can indefinitely replace the loyalty of a national army. Tiani’s regime may have won the battle of 29 August, but it may have lost something far more precious: the trust of those who wear the Nigerien uniform.