On July 30, 2023, just four days following the coup against President Mohamed Bazoum, ECOWAS issued a clear directive: the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) must reinstate the ousted president. The regional body swiftly imposed sanctions and even threatened military intervention.

The very next day, Mali and Burkina Faso, both under military rule themselves, interpreted ECOWAS’s ultimatum as a declaration of war. This pivotal moment underscored that Niger’s relationship with ECOWAS could not be viewed in isolation from its military-led neighbors.

Subsequently, these three nations solidified their alliance, forming the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a concrete step towards disengaging from the sub-regional organization. Their official withdrawal from ECOWAS took effect in late January 2025, yet channels of communication between the two blocs surprisingly remain open.

Lansana Kouyaté: a key mediator

Pape Ibrahima Kane, an expert in international organizations and African current affairs, highlights a significant development: the AES countries have accepted former Guinean Prime Minister Lansana Kouyaté as ECOWAS’s lead negotiator. This signals a potential shift in the diplomatic landscape.

“At the recent ECOWAS meeting held on Saturday, July 18, 2026, in Freetown, the new ECOWAS Commission President, Birame Diop of Senegal, was mandated to prioritize regional security issues in initial discussions,” Kane explained.

He further noted, “We are at the outset of a highly promising process because both parties are genuinely aligned on engaging in dialogue.”

Kane emphasized Niger’s unique reliance on Nigeria and Benin, both ECOWAS member states, for its electricity supply and access to the vital Cotonou port. He expressed confidence that Lansana Kouyaté would carefully consider these specific interdependencies, both for Niger and the broader AES, during negotiations with ECOWAS.

Romuald Wadagni’s outreach for de-escalation

Further positive signs for sustained dialogue include the appointment of Bassirou Diomaye Faye as the current ECOWAS Chairman. Following his election, Faye visited the AES countries in May 2024. Additionally, the recent assumption of power by Romuald Wadagni in Benin saw him choose Niger as his inaugural foreign visit, preceding trips to Burkina Faso and Mali.

Pape Ibrahima Kane observes that “Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Romuald Wadagni are in a much stronger position than their predecessors (Alassane Ouattara, Patrice Talon, Macky Sall), who faced significant criticism. A new team is also set to take charge at ECOWAS headquarters in Abuja, poised to implement a program less constrained than the previous one.” This shift in leadership could prove crucial for African governance and regional stability.

Sahanine Mahamadou, a special advisor to Mohamed Bazoum, responsible for NGOs and customary, religious, social, and humanitarian affairs, asserts that ECOWAS has consistently sought dialogue with Niger. He states, “It has always been the military who resisted dialogue. If these individuals are truly patriots, they must create pathways for civilian leadership, because the world has evolved; it is no longer feasible for military forces to govern our states.”

Mahamadou’s comments subtly advocate for the reinstatement of Mohamed Bazoum, who has yet to formally resign. In March, the European Parliament passed a near-unanimous resolution condemning Bazoum’s and his wife’s detention, urging their immediate release. Niamey, however, denounced this text as paternalistic interference, highlighting the complexities of current African current affairs.

The fate of Mohamed Bazoum

For Jérôme Pigné, president and founder of the Strategic Reflection Network on Sahel Security, a critical question arises: how can the European Union uphold its values regarding Niger while simultaneously maintaining productive dialogue with Niamey?

“Evidently, the illegal detention of President Mohamed Bazoum remains a significant obstacle for the European Union when engaging with Niger. However, broadly speaking, Europeans must define their objectives. Is it to compromise on principles in the name of realpolitik? It’s a delicate balancing act, and currently, no one has found a definitive solution.”

Pigné underscores Niger’s historical partnership with the EU, noting that the bloc is now “rethinking its cooperation framework with Niger, as well as with its neighbors.” He affirms, “Dialogue is essential, and it exists.”

A study published last March by the German Foundation for Economics and Politics (SWP) in Berlin suggested that “Europe should offer comprehensive support to the current military regimes to stabilize their nations.”

This European backing could encompass enhanced military and security cooperation, including “providing intelligence, supplying military equipment, and investing in the training of security forces.”

According to the SWP, the EU can also contribute to improving the economic situation in Niger and other Sahelian countries. It advocates for ongoing political dialogue with regional political and social stakeholders, while cautioning that “Europe should not expect to alter the juntas’ behavior.”