The Cameroonian economy is facing a critical turning point. The Hilli Episeyo, a floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) vessel anchored off Kribi since 2018, will depart in July 2026 once its contract with the national oil company SNH expires. This withdrawal has been identified by the National Economic and Financial Committee (CNEF) as a key factor in the expected economic slowdown, alongside geopolitical tensions and declining export sectors.

According to the CNEF’s mid-term outlook for 2026, Cameroon’s GDP growth is projected to decelerate to around 3.2%, down from 3.5% the previous year, with a further slight decline to 3.1% in 2027. An alternative scenario presented in the same report suggests marginally higher figures—3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. In both cases, the extractive sector is expected to drag down growth, contributing a negative 0.4 percentage point in each year. The oil and gas sector, which includes all hydrocarbon-related activities, is forecast to contract by 16.1% in 2026 and 18% in 2027.

GNL sector already in decline before FLNG vessel leaves

The departure of the Hilli Episeyo coincides with a weakening gas export market. In 2025, revenues from liquefied natural gas (GNL) exports totaled 350.2 billion FCFA, down from 381 billion in 2024, 421 billion in 2023, and a peak of 622 billion in 2022. This represents an 8.1% year-on-year decline. The trend continued into early 2026, with total exports falling by 23.6% to 606.9 billion FCFA in the first quarter, including a 28.4% drop in GNL exports and a 14.4% decline in crude oil exports.

Despite the downturn, GNL still accounted for 11.4% of Cameroon’s total export earnings in 2025. Its loss will therefore remove a critical revenue stream just as other key industries are also struggling. Over the same period, cocoa and derivative product sales plummeted by 37.7%, timber by 11.5%, aluminum by 53.7%, and crude rubber by 16.7%. The compounded decline across multiple sectors amplifies the impact of the upcoming gas export shock.

Trade balance and budget under strain as macroeconomic pressures mount

The national accounts are expected to bear the brunt of this transition. The CNEF projects a current account deficit of 5.4% of GDP in 2026, widening to 6.1% in 2027, up from an estimated 3.2% in 2025. The fiscal deficit is also set to follow a similar trajectory, rising from 1.7% of GDP in 2026 to 2.1% in 2027. These projections already factor in a global trade slowdown, higher shipping costs, and only moderate growth in public revenue.

The volatility in global oil prices presents policymakers with a familiar dilemma. Keeping pump prices stable would require increased fuel subsidies, placing an immediate strain on state finances. Alternatively, adjusting retail prices could reignite inflation and erode household purchasing power. While the CNEF does not take a definitive stance, it emphasizes the narrow margin for maneuver available to the government.

Yoyo-Yolanda and new exploration blocks: potential but no quick fix

The SNH is banking on upstream portfolio diversification to offset the loss of the Hilli Episeyo. The flagship project remains the Yoyo-Yolanda transboundary field, shared with Equatorial Guinea, with estimated geological resources of around 2.5 trillion cubic feet and an investment nearing 4 billion US dollars. However, the timeline depends on finalizing technical and commercial agreements, securing financing, and building dedicated infrastructure.

In parallel, the national oil company is pushing forward with the award of new exploration blocks in the Rio del Rey and Douala-Kribi-Campo basins. While negotiations for production-sharing contracts are underway, there is no guarantee of commercially viable discoveries or rapid production ramp-up. The central risk lies in the transition gap: the longer the delay between the FLNG vessel’s departure and the startup of new production, the more prolonged the negative impact on Cameroon’s GDP growth will be. None of the announced alternatives are expected to compensate for the projected shortfall in GNL exports in the near term.

By Boureima Amadou — Reporter