The jihadist group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), affiliated with al-Qaeda, has escalated its campaign in Mali, tightening an economic siege around Bamako and striking key infrastructure. Over the past weekend, at least ten buses were set ablaze along the vital Ségou-Bamako corridor, a lifeline for the capital’s supplies arriving from eastern regions. Simultaneously, attackers targeted and destroyed electrical infrastructure linked to the Manantali hydroelectric dam in the Kayes area, compounding the nation’s growing energy crisis.
Manantali: a strategic target in a war of attrition
The assault on Manantali is far from incidental. The dam, jointly managed under a multilateral framework by Mali, Mauritania, and Senegal within the Senegal River Development Organization (OMVS), serves as a cornerstone of Mali’s power grid. By sabotaging its transmission lines, JNIM is no longer merely challenging the Malian armed forces—it’s striking at the heart of urban economic stability, where electricity outages paralyze public services, businesses, and industrial operations.
This offensive follows weeks of systematic disruption, including repeated attacks on fuel convoys entering from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. The jihadists aim to weaponize fuel shortages, betting on eroding public confidence in the transitional government led by General Assimi Goïta. What was once a relatively insulated capital is now at the epicenter of a relentless battle of endurance.
Armed forces respond amid fragile relief
In response, the Malian military claims to have intensified both ground and aerial operations across multiple regions. Military escorts have recently facilitated the entry of hundreds of tanker trucks into Bamako, temporarily easing pressure on fuel-starved service stations. Yet this logistical lifeline remains fragile: each convoy demands significant resources, and the prospect of long-term road security appears increasingly distant.
The Armed Forces of Mali (FAMa) face a double threat. In central and western zones, JNIM continues to carry out ambushes and destroy key infrastructure. Meanwhile, in the north, particularly around Kidal, tensions remain high, with fresh clashes expected against rebel factions of the Permanent Strategic Framework. The transitional government in Bamako is thus navigating two distinct battlefields with dwindling resources.
Regional spillover fuels wider instability
The blockade’s impact extends far beyond Mali’s borders. Neighboring economies—those of Senegal, Mauritania, and Côte d’Ivoire—are feeling the strain as trade corridors across West Africa deteriorate. Slowdowns in goods movement are reverberating through ports in Dakar and Abidjan, where a substantial share of cargo traditionally heads toward Sahel hinterlands. The Sahel States Confederation, comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has yet to forge a unified counter-strategy against the jihadist economic warfare campaign.
The Manantali attack also raises urgent concerns about shared infrastructure under the OMVS. Further damage could directly disrupt electricity supply to Senegal and Mauritania, turning a localized Malian crisis into a regional emergency. International partners, including development donors and military suppliers, now face a delicate balancing act: supporting Bamako’s sovereignty while safeguarding vital cross-border infrastructure.
On the ground, the disconnect between the military’s operational claims and the harsh realities facing Bamako underscores the unprecedented nature of this conflict phase. JNIM is no longer merely contesting territory—it is systematically strangling state functionality.
