Senegal’s political landscape undergoes dramatic shift as key alliances unravel

A significant political shift has gripped Senegal, beginning on Friday, May 22, when President Bassirou Diomaye Faye unexpectedly dismissed his long-standing ally, Ousmane Sonko, and the entire government. By Sunday, the former Prime Minister had reclaimed his parliamentary seat as a deputy. Concurrently, the President of the National Assembly, Malick Ndiaye, tendered his resignation. The election for the new Assembly President is scheduled for Tuesday, a position Ousmane Sonko is widely expected to secure. This sequence of events clearly signals a looming power struggle between the executive and legislative branches of the government.

Many political commentators suggest this dramatic separation was long anticipated. They argue that the power dynamic between Faye and Sonko inherently contained a fundamental, insoluble contradiction. It wasn’t due to a lack of talent or radically divergent political visions between the two leaders. Rather, it is asserted that a republic cannot function as a jazz duo where two soloists simultaneously improvise without a shared score. The very nature of executive power is unitary. Historical examples from African governance, spanning from Nkrumah to Sankara, and Modibo Keïta to Laurent-Désiré Kabila, consistently demonstrate that cohabitations at the highest levels between two equally strong wills invariably conclude with the removal of one or the downfall of both.

Emerging divisions and growing friction

Further analysis highlights that these events are the culmination of months of underlying tensions between two men who ascended to power in April 2024 amidst immense popular hope. The political rift had, in fact, been brewing since July of the previous year, when the first cracks appeared in their partnership. At that time, Ousmane Sonko had voiced concerns about a “problem of authority,” accusing the President of failing to adequately defend him against political attacks. The final break occurred merely hours after a parliamentary session where the former head of government publicly challenged several presidential decisions, including the management of political funds, unequivocally stating that the President had “made a mistake.”

An impending clash between the executive and legislative branches?

Consequently, questions are now being raised: has the former Prime Minister effectively become the President’s primary opposition? Bolstered by his significant popularity, Ousmane Sonko poses a tangible threat to Bassirou Diomaye Faye. The next phase of this power dynamic will likely unfold within the National Assembly. Moussa Diaw, a professor of political science at the Université Gaston-Berger in Saint-Louis, commented that “the political battle risks shifting to the National Assembly, becoming a standoff between the Head of State and the parliament.” He warns that the potential for governmental paralysis would be substantial, particularly as the executive aims to introduce a series of institutional reforms. Four crucial legislative texts concerning constitutional revisions, the Constitutional Court, political parties, and the establishment of an independent national electoral commission are slated for presentation before the National Assembly soon. This scenario would leave the Head of State with very limited room for maneuver.

Indeed, commentators in Ouagadougou point out that the situation now pits Pastef, the party controlled by Ousmane Sonko, against the Diomaye Faye presidential coalition. Essentially, it is the executive versus the legislative, a fierce power struggle with the municipal elections of 2027 and, more importantly, the presidential election of 2029 firmly in sight. Among Pastef supporters, especially the young Senegalese who had placed their faith in the Faye-Sonko duo’s promises, there is palpable doubt, anger, and disarray, leaving them uncertain of whom to trust.

Could Ousmane Sonko emerge victorious?

The test of strength has begun, and it could potentially favor Ousmane Sonko, according to Adrien Poussou, a former Central African Minister of Communication and geopolitical analyst. Poussou asserts that the current political reality in Senegal is undeniable: Pastef overwhelmingly dominates the national scene, thanks to its exceptional grassroots presence, a mobilized youth base, and a powerful narrative forged during years of confrontation with the regime of Macky Sall. Within this dynamic, Sonko remains the central figure. Even when he was previously impeded by the justice system and absent from presidential ballots, the hope for change crystallized around him. While President Faye holds institutional legitimacy, Poussou tempers, his former Prime Minister retains formidable popular and activist legitimacy. In any future political or electoral confrontation, this factor could prove decisive in Senegal‘s evolving African current affairs.