Geopolitical rivalries and development strategies in the Sahel

The nations comprising the Sahel belt – a geographical expanse stretching from Mali to Chad – hardly present the economic profile of a burgeoning new eldorado. Frankly, it’s far from being a Singapore for foreign direct investment. Key economic indicators for Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger reveal significant challenges. In Mali, for instance, 47% of its 25.9 million inhabitants are under 15 years old, only 25% of its land is arable, and the country ranks 188th out of 193 on the UNDP’s Human Development Index. Nearly 45% of the population lives below the poverty line. Ouagadougou and Niamey exhibit similar statistics, with approximately 40% and 60.5% of their populations, respectively, living in poverty, according to the World Bank. All three are landlocked nations, currently governed by military leaders who have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), seemingly with tacit backing from the Kremlin, eager to diminish remaining French influence. Their declared anti-French, anti-Western, and anti-democratic stance was intended to usher in prosperity, which they claimed was previously stifled by European powers; however, this promise remains unfulfilled. Nevertheless, two neighboring countries, Algeria and Morocco, are now actively offering their services to the region.

Morocco: an atlantic gateway

Through the development of the Dakhla Atlantic port, the Kingdom of Morocco is proposing a major maritime hub in Western Sahara, comparable in ambition to Tanger Med, which serves as a gateway to Europe. Construction is anticipated to conclude by 2028, with operations commencing the following year. The vision for this infrastructure is to establish a primary entry point for West Africa and a direct route to the Americas. Rabat has already hosted the three leaders of the AES. From a geopolitical perspective, the offer is strategically sharp: a port from which a future railway line (though not yet finalized) would extend, providing these three landlocked countries with vital access to the Atlantic Ocean, thus significantly boosting their economies. For Morocco, which faces geographical isolation due to its conflict with Algeria, this initiative serves multiple purposes: it demonstrates that its development plan for Western Sahara benefits the entire sub-region, and that economic growth can indirectly counter the jihadist groups plaguing the Sahel by offering hope to a growing, often despairing youth population. The Sahel’s birth rate is soaring, with its population projected to double within a decade.

Algeria: a trans-saharan gas pipeline to europe

Algeria, which previously experienced strained relations with Niger, re-established amicable ties in mid-February with Abderrahmane Tiani, the head of Niger’s military government in Niamey. Algeria proposed initiating construction of a segment of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline “immediately after Ramadan.” This pipeline, originating in Nigeria, would now pass through Niger before reaching Algeria, ultimately supplying natural gas to Europe. Spanning 4,800 kilometers, the project is a significant undertaking. Sonatrach, Algeria’s national hydrocarbon company, would manage the construction within Nigerien territory and provide training to Nigériens for its operation. This commitment to local capacity building stands in contrast to the practices of some other foreign investors, such as China, which often do not prioritize training local populations in the management of their national resources.

Two complementary strategies in contention

In Madrid and subsequently in Washington (February 23rd and 24th), discussions began regarding Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara. Should this conflict, now in its fiftieth year, finally reach a resolution, Algeria and Morocco could potentially collaborate on the Sahel’s volatile security and demographic challenges. Such cooperation would prevent the AES states from exploiting the existing rivalries between the two regional capitals.

Jihadism thrives on the combined scourges of poverty and authoritarian governance. Both Algiers and Rabat independently seek to disrupt this devastating cycle. Each nation leverages its unique strengths: Algeria offers its vast hydrocarbon resources and the technical expertise of Sonatrach; Morocco emphasizes its ambitious infrastructure projects and its aspiration to become a key hub connecting Africa, America, and Europe. These two strategies, while inherently complementary, are unfortunately pitted against each other due to the unresolved Sahrawi conflict. This is a considerable missed opportunity for regional stability and development.

On September 26, 2025, Mali’s Prime Minister, Abdoulaye Maïga, publicly demanded that Algeria “cease supporting international terrorism.” In response, Ahmed Attaf, Algeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, denounced these accusations as a “soldier’s rant,” highlighting the persistent diplomatic tensions.