France’s declining influence in Gabon amid shifting diplomatic ties

Gabon has witnessed an unprecedented surge in negative sentiment toward France, with 78% of citizens expressing unfavorable views of its influence—a stark contrast to just 20% who hold a favorable opinion. This dramatic shift places the former colonial power at the bottom of the rankings among external actors in Libreville, a country once regarded as a cornerstone of Francophone influence in the Gulf of Guinea.

Meanwhile, other global partners are gaining ground. China leads with a 61% positive rating, followed closely by the African Union (60%), the United States (47%), and Russia (43%). The reversal underscores a profound transformation in Gabon’s diplomatic landscape, where France’s long-standing economic and military presence now faces growing skepticism.

Regional trends fuel Gabon’s rejection of France

The Gabonese disillusionment with France is not an isolated phenomenon. Since French forces withdrew from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, the tide of anti-French sentiment has spread across West and Central Africa. Chad recently moved to revise its defense agreements, Senegal has called for the closure of French military bases, and Côte d’Ivoire has taken similar steps. Gabon, where the military-led transition under Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema began in August 2023, aligns with this broader trend of reassessing inherited partnerships.

The symbolic shift is mirrored by concrete actions: the gradual closure of French military bases on the continent and the downsizing of French military elements in Gabon to a cooperation-focused mission. Libreville’s insistence on sovereignty and diversifying partnerships resonates with a public weary of an asymmetrical relationship they perceive as outdated.

China’s rise in Gabon’s favor

China’s growing influence in Gabon extends beyond financial investments or infrastructure projects. Its appeal lies in a non-interference approach, focusing on tangible deliverables—roads, hospitals, and telecommunications—that contrast sharply with the complexities of France’s historical ties. The demand for Gabonese manganese, a critical resource for Beijing, further solidifies this transactional relationship, which many citizens find more straightforward and mutually beneficial.

Russia, though lacking China’s economic footprint or France’s colonial legacy, has cultivated a 43% favorable rating by leveraging an anti-Western narrative amplified through social media. This strategy has resonated particularly with urban youth, who view Moscow as a champion of sovereignty. Meanwhile, the African Union’s 60% approval reflects the enduring legitimacy of continental multilateralism, despite Gabon’s suspension following the 2023 coup.

A wake-up call for French diplomacy

These findings present a strategic challenge for France’s diplomatic corps. Gabon remains a key economic hub for French interests, with major players like Eramet (manganese), TotalEnergies (hydrocarbons), and banking and logistics firms deeply embedded in the country. The erosion of France’s image could weaken its position as Gabon’s transition government re-evaluates public tenders and foreign partnerships.

Underlying structural grievances—such as debates over the CFA franc, demands for the return of cultural artifacts, and lingering memories of post-independence interference—cannot be addressed through superficial PR efforts. Afrobarometer’s data suggests that restoring France’s favorability in Gabon will require a fundamental overhaul of its diplomatic approach, one that moves beyond cosmetic changes.

The political transition in Gabon, culminating in a presidential election and return to constitutional order, could reshape the country’s future alliances. The next government will face a critical choice: maintain economic continuity, bow to public pressure for a break from France, or pivot toward the increasingly attractive offers from China, the United States, or Russia.