Emmanuel Macron’s candid assessment of Sahelian military regimes

President Emmanuel Macron recently adopted a confrontational tone to describe the current state of affairs between France and the military governments across the Sahel region. His assertion that Paris has been « repaid with ingratitude » marks a definitive end to a diplomatic phase that spanned over a decade, delivered with an unusual degree of directness. This statement unequivocally targets the ruling juntas in Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey, all of whom have, in succession, informed France of the termination of their bilateral military cooperation.

A presidential declaration confirming the Sahelian rupture

The rhetoric from the Élysée Palace occupant diverges sharply from the customary diplomatic caution typically observed with African partners. By emphasizing France’s significant human and financial sacrifices, President Macron aims to attribute the breakdown in relations to the transitional authorities that emerged from the coups d’état in 2020, 2022, and 2023. This discourse also addresses a domestic audience, as the events in the Sahel are largely perceived within France as a significant strategic setback following the compelled withdrawal of Operation Barkhane in 2022.

Nevertheless, the presidential pronouncement risks further solidifying an already precarious situation. In both Bamako and Niamey, the official narrative has been built upon condemning what is described as an intrusive, even neocolonial, French presence. Every statement from the Élysée expressing grievances invariably fuels the sovereignist rhetoric championed by Colonels Assimi Goïta, Ibrahim Traoré, and Abdourahamane Tiani. European diplomatic missions, closely monitoring these developments, fear that such direct language could also complicate their remaining communication channels with Sahelian capitals.

The Alliance of Sahel States confronts French withdrawal

Since the establishment of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in September 2023, which evolved into a confederation by July 2024, the three military regimes have dramatically accelerated their diplomatic reorientation. This includes their departure from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a growing alignment with Moscow through the Africa Corps, which has succeeded Wagner, and burgeoning ties with Ankara and Tehran. The geopolitical repositioning of Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey is proceeding at an intense pace. Meanwhile, France, which previously held significant economic influence through mechanisms like the CFA franc and companies such as Orange, TotalEnergies, and Eramet, is witnessing its leverage diminish.

In practical terms, the impending departure of the final French troops from Chad and Sénégal, slated for late 2024, will finalize Paris’s military withdrawal from the Sahelo-Saharan front. The French operational presence in West Africa, which numbered over 5,000 personnel in 2020, is now scaling back to a minimal footprint, primarily focused on training and intelligence gathering. This significant reduction fundamentally alters France’s long-standing model of influence, which was historically underpinned by military force projection.

A double-edged rhetoric for Paris

By publicly citing the « ingratitude » of African partners, President Macron risks reinforcing a postcolonial narrative that has already gained considerable traction among Sahelian public opinion, particularly within urban and youth demographics. The term, whether intended or not, evokes a paternalistic tone that the French executive had actively sought to dismantle since the Ouagadougou speech in November 2017. The stark contrast between initial pledges for a renewed Franco-African relationship and the current reality of a fractured partnership is now undeniable.

Furthermore, this presidential declaration comes as Paris endeavors to reconfigure its African partnerships, focusing on what it considers more stable nations, ranging from Morocco to Côte d’Ivoire, including Bénin and Mauritanie. This strategy, designed to bypass the Sahel, necessitates a carefully measured public discourse; otherwise, it risks adversely affecting its broader diplomatic engagements. Several African diplomats, even those from allied nations, have privately voiced their discomfort with what they perceive as an overly personal register.

In Dakar, Abidjan, and Nouakchott, this unfolding situation is being closely watched, as it underscores France’s struggle to conclude a chapter cleanly without reopening old wounds. A critical question persists: how can Paris re-establish its credibility as an attentive partner on the continent while simultaneously defending a Sahelian legacy it believes has been unfairly perceived? These recent remarks by Emmanuel Macron signify another step in the symbolic disengagement from the French Sahelian dossier.