The signing of three tripartite agreements in Lomé on 11 September was meant to signal a new chapter in how West Africa handles the Burkina Faso refugee crisis. Instead, it has opened a broader conversation about what comes next — and whether the framework can withstand the realities on the ground. The accords, concluded between Burkina Faso, the UN refugee agency and each of the three host countries — Benin, Ghana and Togo — set out a structure for voluntary, safe and dignified return when conditions allow. But the immediate aftermath has been marked less by celebration than by cautious scrutiny, with observers questioning how a diplomatic blueprint translates into protection for thousands of displaced families.

What the agreements actually set in motion

The Lomé texts do not trigger any immediate repatriation. They establish consultation, monitoring and preparation mechanisms for potential return operations and for the reintegration of those concerned. That distinction matters in a region where the word “return” can easily be read as a signal to pack up and go. The principle upheld by the UN refugee agency is different: any repatriation must be voluntary, safe and dignified, and refugees must be able to make an informed choice about their future.

Host countries under pressure

For years, insecurity in Burkina Faso has pushed thousands across borders. Benin, Ghana and Togo now find themselves on the front line of a crisis they did not create.

The numbers tell the story. Benin recorded more than 11,000 refugees from Burkina Faso as of 31 May 2026. In Ghana, June 2026 statistics showed 13,368 Burkinabè refugees — nearly two-thirds of the country’s entire refugee population. Ghana had set up reception centres in the border areas of Tarikom and Zini and, in February 2025, granted prima facie refugee status to Burkinabè seeking protection. Togo, meanwhile, hosted around 65,100 refugees and asylum seekers in June 2026, 86 percent of them from Burkina Faso.

These figures give the Lomé agreements a human dimension that abstract policy language can obscure. Behind any future return operation are families who left their villages, abandoned their belongings and in some cases lost relatives.

The security question that will not go away

The central challenge remains Burkina Faso itself. The country has faced an insurgency led by Islamist armed groups, alongside serious allegations concerning operations by government forces and allied militias.

Human Rights Watch says the human rights situation deteriorated further in 2025, documenting abuses attributed both to Islamist armed groups and to government forces and pro-government militias. The organisation cites killings of civilians, forced displacement and growing restrictions on media, opposition and civil society. In an April 2026 report, it documented 57 incidents and gathered testimony from hundreds of people to examine violence committed since 2023. The organisation estimates that Burkinabè forces and their allied militias, as well as Islamist armed groups, are responsible for grave abuses that may amount to war crimes or crimes against humanity, and calls for accountability through credible investigations.

These allegations bear directly on the context to which refugees would be asked to return. A repatriation operation cannot be considered a solution simply because a diplomatic agreement has been signed.

Military rule and the missing guarantees

Since the September 2022 coup, Burkina Faso has been led by military authorities under Captain Ibrahim Traoré. Human Rights Watch reports that the junta extended the transition period and reduced political and civic space, with measures targeting journalists, opponents and civil society organisations. The organisation has also documented disappearances, forced conscription and restrictions on critical voices. In May 2026, it again denounced tightening measures against independent media and information.

For refugees, these elements are not secondary. The fundamental question remains protection: can they return to their villages without fearing new violence? Will their homes and land be accessible? Will they have access to civil documents, healthcare, schools and livelihoods? And crucially, will mechanisms exist to report any violations?

The UN refugee agency itself notes that durable return presupposes that the root causes of displacement have been sufficiently addressed and that peace allows people to live without being forced to flee again.

Benin, Ghana and Togo: responsibility without easy answers

The posture of Benin, Ghana and Togo is a key part of the regional equation. By hosting populations forced to flee, these three countries have assumed a heavy humanitarian responsibility despite their own security and economic challenges.

The Lomé agreement allows them to avoid framing reception and return as opposing choices. It gives the countries involved a framework to prepare for the future while maintaining the principle of voluntariness. It is also a signal of regional cooperation. Gulf of Guinea countries are directly exposed to the consequences of the Sahel crisis. Population movements do not stop at borders and require coordination between states, international organisations and local communities. Benin, Ghana and Togo can thus be seen not only as Burkina Faso’s neighbours but as actors in the regional response.

A roadmap, not a calendar

The Lomé agreements are therefore more a roadmap than a repatriation timetable. Their effectiveness will depend on how they are applied and, above all, on conditions in Burkina Faso.

The message to refugees is clear: return must be voluntary and must happen when security and dignity conditions are met. That caution is all the more important given that Burkina Faso remains marked by armed violence and allegations of abuses involving multiple parties to the conflict.

For Benin, Ghana and Togo, the challenge is now twofold: continue protecting those who need asylum while preparing, with the UN refugee agency and Burkinabè authorities, the conditions for a possible return.

Because a refugee truly goes home only when they can live there in safety. The real success of the Lomé agreements will not be measured by how many people are sent back to Burkina Faso, but by how many are able to return freely, rejoin their communities and rebuild their lives without being forced to flee again.

By Mariama Hamani — Analyst