The western Sahara: a ‘frozen’ conflict at the heart of intense diplomatic maneuvering

Western Sahara stands as the final unresolved decolonization dossier on the African continent. Designated by the United Nations as a non-self-governing territory, this region is the focal point of a complex confrontation interwoven with international law, regional rivalries, and critical energy security concerns.

A striking paradox defines the situation: while military positions on the ground appear static, international diplomatic activity surrounding the Western Sahara conflict diplomacy has never been more dynamic or intense.

1. Military stalemate versus diplomatic flux

Since the 1991 United Nations-brokered ceasefire between Morocco and the Polisario Front, military positions have remained largely unchanged. Morocco maintains de facto administrative, economic, and military control over the majority of the territory. In contrast, the Polisario Front oversees a sparsely populated desert strip to the east of the “Berm,” the fortified sand wall constructed by Morocco.

However, this on-the-ground stagnation belies a fervent diplomatic landscape. The conflict has become deeply embedded in global geopolitical calculations, influencing migration flows, energy supply security, and the strategic alliances of major powers, making it a key element in African current affairs and global governance discussions.

2. The pivotal UN Resolution 2797

The adoption of Resolution 2797 by the United Nations Security Council on October 31, 2025, perfectly illustrates this evolving dynamic:

–A vote without consensus: While the resolution passed, China, Russia, and Pakistan abstained. Algeria, a long-standing supporter of the Polisario Front, notably refused to participate in the vote, signaling its strong disapproval.

–An outcome favoring Morocco: The resolution extends the mandate of MINURSO (the UN mission) until October 2026. Crucially, it reasserts that negotiations must be based on the autonomy proposal submitted by Morocco.

–Strategic ambiguity: The United Nations has not formally endorsed Moroccan sovereignty, nor has it abandoned the principle of self-determination. Nevertheless, by establishing Morocco’s autonomy plan as the indispensable starting point for talks, it creates an “anchoring effect” that progressively marginalizes other options, such as full independence.

In Rabat, this resolution was widely celebrated as a significant diplomatic triumph, reinforcing the perception that international momentum is now undeniably shifting in Morocco’s favor.

3. Historical roots of the impasse

To grasp the current stalemate, it is essential to revisit the major historical milestones of this territory, which Spain colonized in 1884:

International Court of Justice Advisory Opinion (1975)

Upon Morocco’s request, the International Court of Justice concluded that while historical ties of allegiance existed between certain Sahrawi tribes and the Sultan of Morocco, these did not constitute territorial sovereignty and did not negate the population’s right to self-determination.

The Green March and the Madrid Accords (November 1975)

Morocco orchestrated the Green March, sending hundreds of thousands of civilians across the border. Days later, Spain signed the Madrid Accords, relinquishing its responsibilities as the administering power and temporarily dividing control between Morocco and Mauritania (without United Nations approval).

Mauritanian withdrawal and deadlock (1979 – 1989)

Plagued by economic crisis and political instability, Mauritania abandoned its claims in 1979. Morocco subsequently took control of the vacated zone. In response to attacks by the Polisario Front (which had proclaimed the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic, RASD), Morocco constructed the “Berm,” effectively freezing the conflict into a military impasse by the late 1980s.

Establishment of MINURSO (1991)

The United Nations ceasefire came into effect, and MINURSO was deployed to monitor peace and organize a self-determination referendum. This referendum never materialized due to insurmountable disagreements regarding voter eligibility and the census of the Sahrawi electorate.

Conclusion: The triumph of political realism

The enduring status quo in Western Sahara is no longer primarily dictated by legal frameworks, but rather by an international environment that prioritizes ambiguity over outright rupture. Major powers and regional actors now place absolute importance on geopolitical stability, predictability, and the preservation of their strategic alliances.

Western Sahara thus finds itself suspended in a complex equilibrium: a definitive resolution remains theoretically possible, but for now, it proves too politically inconvenient for the international community to implement.