Tchad’s economic outlook: 5.3% growth projected for 2026

The National Economic and Financial Committee (CNEF) of Chad convened its second ordinary session of 2026 in N’Djamena on July 21, chaired by Tahir Hamid Nguilin, Minister of State for Finance, Budget, Economy, Planning and International Cooperation, who also heads the Committee.

The meeting brought together key figures including Guibolo Fanga Mathieu, Minister of Trade and Industry, Saleh Bourma Ali, Deputy Minister overseeing Economic Affairs, Planning and International Cooperation, Yvon Sana Bangui, Governor of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC), alongside other statutory members.

During the session, the CNEF analyzed global, regional, and national macroeconomic conditions, assessing 2026 economic forecasts alongside medium-term projections. The findings were presented by Idriss Ahmed Idriss, Secretary-General of the Committee and National Director of the BEAC.

A global backdrop of persistent geopolitical strains

The final communiqué highlighted ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the continued Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the tightening of protectionist policies worldwide as dominant themes in the international economic landscape.

Regionally, despite a slight slowdown, Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) economies demonstrated notable resilience. The Committee emphasized controlled inflation rates, stronger fiscal and external balances, and a steady buildup of foreign exchange reserves.

Chad’s GDP set to expand by 5.3% in 2026

Nationally, the CNEF forecasts real GDP growth of 5.3% in 2026, up from 5.1% in 2025. This uptick is largely attributed to robust performance in the non-oil sector, even as oil output is expected to decline.

The Committee also reported a continued easing of inflationary pressures, with the inflation rate projected to drop to 0.5% in 2026 from 2.6% in 2025, signaling a healthier macroeconomic environment.

Monetary and financial indicators show positive trends

Members noted a substantial increase in net foreign assets by the end of March 2026, alongside growth in money supply and a comfortable level of import coverage from foreign reserves.

The Chadian banking system and non-bank financial sector both posted encouraging results, with the aggregate banking balance sheet expanding by 4.9% year-on-year as of March 2026.

Budget execution and financial inclusion take center stage

On the fiscal front, the CNEF reviewed the state budget execution through June 2026. The session also covered a range of technical issues, including the first-quarter 2026 effective interest rate (TEG) report, outcomes of audits conducted at banking institutions, and updates from the technical meeting on expanding central bank deposit services across the country.

Following the discussions, the Committee reaffirmed its commitment to closely monitor economic and financial indicators to safeguard macroeconomic stability and foster sustainable growth in Chad.