The escalating conflict in Sudan has triggered a severe humanitarian crisis, with nearly a million people fleeing into neighboring Chad. The fall of El-Fasher in North Darfur has intensified the exodus, with nearly 100,000 civilians displaced in just two weeks—including 6,000 who crossed the Chad-Sudan border. This surge of refugees has placed immense pressure on Chad, a country already grappling with years of regional instability.

a strategic border under strain

The 1,300-kilometer border between Sudan and Chad winds through harsh, sparsely monitored desert terrain. Historically, this region has been exploited by militias and rebel groups, but now it faces a new threat: the rapid advancement of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which now controls much of Darfur.

Since December 2024, military tensions have escalated sharply. In one incident, a drone strike killed two Chadian soldiers, while an RSF incursion in January 2025 near Tiné resulted in seven deaths. In response, Chad has sealed its border completely, citing the direct risk of conflict spilling over into its territory.

neutrality claims met with lingering suspicions

Chad maintains a stance of neutrality in the Sudanese war, yet mounting evidence—including satellite analyses—suggests that weapons originating from the United Arab Emirates may have been transported through Chadian territory to support the RSF. Authorities vehemently deny these allegations, emphasizing that they too are victims of cross-border attacks and incursions.

These accusations have deepened internal divisions. In April 2025, several high-ranking military officers, particularly from the Zaghawa ethnic group—prominent in the security apparatus and historically opposed to the RSF—were dismissed from their positions.

strategic realignment with France

After a period of strained diplomatic relations, Chad is seeking to restore close ties with France. The Sudanese crisis has become a key topic in discussions between Chadian leader Mahamat Idriss Déby and French President Emmanuel Macron. France had previously played a crucial role in providing intelligence support to secure the border, a service that has since diminished. Rekindling this partnership is now seen as vital for Chad’s stability.

By Mariama Hamani — Analyst