The re-entry of Shell into Gabon signals a pivotal moment for the nation’s petroleum industry. A decade after its departure, the Anglo-Dutch energy giant is poised to recommit to the Gabonese sedimentary basin. This move aligns with Libreville’s efforts to reverse a continuous decline in hydrocarbon output. The announcement, made amidst ongoing reforms post-political transition, underscores the government’s intention to project a strong message to global investors.

Shell had previously withdrawn from Gabon in 2016, divesting its onshore assets to Assala Energy, then under the control of the Carlyle fund. This transaction, valued at hundreds of millions of dollars, was part of a broader strategy to streamline the group’s global portfolio, prioritizing ventures deemed more lucrative, particularly in liquefied natural gas and ultra-deepwater exploration. The departure of this oil major left a significant void, as Gabon saw one of its longstanding operators leave.

A clear political signal for Gabon’s petroleum industry

This major’s return unfolds during the presidency of Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema, who assumed leadership following the August 2023 transition and was subsequently confirmed through elections. In recent months, Gabonese authorities have intensified efforts to enhance the attractiveness of the upstream sector. Reforms include revising the hydrocarbon code, reactivating block allocation rounds, and initiating bilateral discussions with various major companies. This comprehensive strategy seeks to reverse the trajectory of oil production, currently hovering around 200,000 barrels per day, a figure considerably lower than the historic peak achieved in the late 1990s.

Shell’s decision to re-engage is far from trivial. The group, which had previously opted to divest what it considered mature and less strategic assets, is now recalibrating its perspective on the African continent. Factors such as the rarity of significant onshore discoveries, mounting cost pressures in ultra-deepwater exploration, and the pursuit of medium-term oil growth opportunities are influencing the strategic choices of major corporations. In this evolving landscape, the Gabonese basin, still offering promising deep offshore and pre-salt structures, has regained considerable appeal.

Libreville aims to revitalize declining oil production

Petroleum production remains Gabon’s principal source of foreign currency, historically contributing over 40% to budgetary revenues and nearly 80% of total exports. Yet, the gradual depletion of mature fields, coupled with cautious investment over recent years, has destabilized this crucial economic balance. Authorities are banking on the re-engagement of prominent industry players to bolster exploration efforts and extend the operational lifespan of existing deposits.

Already, several international entities have expressed renewed interest in the country. The national oil company, Gabon Oil Company (GOC), is steadily expanding its influence in asset governance as existing contracts conclude or undergo renegotiation. Within this framework, Shell’s re-entry could potentially involve collaborations with other locally established operators such as Perenco, TotalEnergies, or BW Energy, all of whom have solidified their positions across various offshore blocks.

Strategic return: details yet to be finalized

The specific parameters of the major’s redeployment, including the exact scope of targeted blocks, the timeline for engagement, investment figures, and the contractual model, still require clarification. The nature of the permits under consideration, whether onshore or in deepwater, will significantly dictate the scale of this return. A deep offshore presence would entail commitments potentially reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, whereas a strategy focused on mature assets would suggest a more conservative approach, primarily aimed at optimizing existing production.

Beyond the particular case of Shell, the overarching credibility of Gabon’s new petroleum policy hangs in the balance. Libreville’s capacity to translate these announcements into concrete, effective investments, especially within a highly competitive landscape where nations like Nigeria, Angola, Namibia, and Senegal aggressively seek to attract capital from major oil companies, will ultimately determine the sector’s direction for the coming decade. In this regard, the re-entry of the Anglo-Dutch company serves as a crucial real-world test for the nation’s new leadership.

By Mariama Hamani — Analyst