Ongoing clashes in eastern DRC one year after peace deal with Rwanda

Violent confrontations between government forces and the March 23 Movement (M23) rebels have intensified in recent months across the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), compounded by a persistent Ebola outbreak. Despite a landmark peace agreement signed in Washington a year ago, the region remains trapped in a dangerous status quo.

Escalating tensions despite diplomatic efforts

The M23, a rebel group accused by the United Nations of receiving military backing from Rwanda, has regained momentum since its resurgence in 2021. Efforts to broker peace have taken multiple paths, including direct negotiations between Kinshasa and Kigali, mediated by Qatari officials in Doha. These talks involved the political wing of the M23, known as the Congo River Alliance.

Parallel to these regional discussions, the United States spearheaded its own diplomatic initiative, culminating in a formal peace accord signed on June 27, 2025. The ceremony in Washington drew high-level participation, including U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and top officials from both the DRC and Rwanda.

Persistent challenges and shifting power dynamics

According to Bob Kabamba, a political scientist at the University of Liège, the situation on the ground remains volatile. “Territorial gains made by the rebels have not been relinquished, and sporadic exchanges of fire continue to violate the ceasefire, with both sides accused of breaches,” he explained. “Since the agreement, the M23 has continued to expand its recruitment efforts, consolidating its influence in the region.”

The professor emphasized that the current balance of power favors the rebel group. “Until the military situation shifts, neither side can impose its terms. The outcome of future negotiations will likely depend on which faction gains the upper hand on the battlefield,” he concluded.

Humanitarian crisis deepens amid instability

The prolonged conflict has exacerbated an already dire humanitarian situation in eastern DRC. Displacement, food insecurity, and disease outbreaks, including Ebola, continue to devastate local communities. With no clear resolution in sight, civilians bear the brunt of the ongoing instability.