Morocco most vulnerable to oil shock from hormuz crisis, study finds

A new collective research work examines the global fallout from the Iran-United States conflict

An extensive study led by international experts analyzes how the war between Iran, the United States, and Israel, along with rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, is reshaping economies and security across the globe. The volume, titled “Hormuz and the Invisible Fractures: the Price of a Distant War,” draws on contributions from specialists including Abdelhak Bassou, Ferid Belhaj, Ian Lesser, Hafez Ghanem, Hinh T. Dinh, and Rida Lyammouri. It pays particular attention to the impact on Morocco, Africa, and other nations in the Global South.

The authors argue that the Hormuz crisis is far more than a regional dispute. It exposes deep vulnerabilities in a globalized economy heavily reliant on energy flows, trade routes, and logistics that pass through this strategic maritime chokepoint. A substantial portion of the world’s oil, gas, fertilizers, and international commerce transits the strait.

One chapter, written by economist Hinh T. Dinh, models the effects of a 20 percent increase in oil prices on the economies of Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt. Using an input-output economic framework, the analysis concludes that Morocco is the most exposed among these three North African nations to the repercussions of an oil price surge linked to the Hormuz crisis. The research highlights vulnerabilities in key sectors such as agriculture, construction, transportation, and other energy-dependent activities.

In contrast, Egypt stands to benefit partially from higher prices thanks to state oil revenues, while Tunisia shows a broadly balanced outcome despite significant disparities across its industries.

+ A challenge to the international order +

Beyond economics, several contributors view the 2026 war as a turning point in the evolution of global governance. Ferid Belhaj argues the conflict reflects increasing fragmentation of the world system and the weakening of traditional mechanisms for cooperation and deterrence. Marcus Vinicius de Freitas sees the emergence of a more multipolar world where conflicts are managed rather than resolved.

Ian Lesser, in another contribution, examines the war’s impact on transatlantic relations, noting that it has deepened disagreements between the United States and several European countries over the use of force and crisis management.

The book also underscores risks to African energy security, stability in the Sahel, and South American economies, while highlighting the growing role of strategic minerals in shaping new geopolitical dynamics.

According to the researchers, this collective effort aims to contribute to the debate on shifting international norms and the strategies states must adopt in the face of crises that could disrupt supply chains, energy markets, and global power balances for years to come.