Morocco 2026 elections: demographic shifts challenge electoral map fairness

The 2024 general population and housing census reveals rapid urban expansion and shrinking city centers in Morocco, raising critical questions about the fairness of the upcoming 2026 parliamentary elections. How will the electoral map adapt to these sweeping demographic changes?

The 2024 census highlights a stark contrast between Morocco’s dynamic urban peripheries and the stagnation of both historical city centers and rural areas. With 62.7% of the population now residing in just five regions—Grand Casablanca-Settat, Rabat-Salé-Kénitra, Marrakech-Safi, Fès-Meknès, and Tanger-Tétouan-Al Hoceïma—the Moroccan electoral map faces an unprecedented challenge. The central issue: does the current system ensure equitable representation when voter-to-deputy ratios vary from as low as 2,992 in Aousserd to over 213,980 in Tanger-Assilah?

Voter-to-deputy ratios expose stark disparities

The Moroccan electoral system operates under two key principles: demographic proportionality and territorial equity. While the former aims to match parliamentary seats to population size, the latter mandates a minimum of two seats per province to prevent marginalization of less densely populated regions.

This dual approach has created glaring disparities. In sparsely populated southern provinces, each vote carries disproportionate weight:

• Aousserd: 2,992 registered voters per seat
• Tarfaya: 5,368 registered voters per seat
• Assa-Zag: 10,178 registered voters per seat
• Es-Semara: 19,712 registered voters per seat
• Boujdour: 20,185 registered voters per seat

Meanwhile, urban centers and their booming suburbs face the opposite problem—excessive dilution of voting power:

• Tanger-Assilah: 213,980 registered voters per seat
• Ménara (Marrakech): 176,256 registered voters per seat
• Sidi Bernoussi (Casablanca): 174,501 registered voters per seat
• Nouaceur (Casablanca periphery): 155,172 registered voters per seat
• Inezgane-Aït Melloul: 151,978 registered voters per seat

A vote cast in Aousserd carries far more influence in electing a deputy than one cast in Tanger or Marrakech. This imbalance underscores the growing disconnect between demographic realities and electoral representation.

Urbanization reshapes Morocco’s electoral landscape

The census reveals Morocco’s urban population has surged to 23.1 million—an increase of 2.68 million since 2014—while the rural population grew by just 302,419, reaching 13.7 million. Urban centers like Casablanca’s Anfa district have seen dramatic declines, losing a quarter of their population in a decade (from 453,000 to 332,000 residents). Yet, Anfa retains four seats—equivalent to 68,707 registered voters per seat—despite its shrinking base.

In contrast, the peripheral province of Nouaceur, near Casablanca, has doubled its population to 665,000 residents over the same period. With only three seats, its ratio stands at 155,172 registered voters per seat. Similar patterns emerge in Rabat, where historic districts like Rabat-Océan (55,856 voters per seat) contrast with the rapidly growing Skhirat-Témara (141,832 voters per seat).

Political implications of electoral map adjustments

Redrawing the electoral map to reflect 2024 census data involves complex trade-offs. If the Interior Ministry opts to rebalance seats without increasing the total number of deputies, it would need to redistribute seats from declining urban centers to expanding peripheries like Nouaceur or Skhirat-Témara.

This adjustment would intensify electoral competition in shrinking districts, favoring established parties with robust financial resources and organizational networks—such as the ruling coalition’s RNI, PAM, and Istiqlal. Conversely, larger districts lower the threshold for smaller parties to gain parliamentary representation through proportional allocation mechanisms.

Rural roots and urban abstention trends

Despite urbanization, many city-dwelling voters remain registered in their rural hometowns to maintain local political influence. This explains why rural turnout often exceeds 90%, while urban areas—particularly middle-class districts—see abstention rates surpassing 70% to 80%.

The current voter registration and list revision campaigns aim to update records for citizens who have moved from urban centers to fast-growing peripheries, correct registration errors, and enhance the electoral roll’s accuracy ahead of the September 23, 2026, legislative elections.

2026 elections: mobilizing the urban middle class

The demographic shifts revealed by the 2024 census present strategic challenges for the upcoming elections. The middle class in major cities, hit hard by inflation and feeling excluded from recent targeted social aid programs, largely abstained in 2021. Their potential return to polling stations in 2026—whether through protest voting or support for alternative parties—could reshape political balances.

Established parties must defend their economic and social records in a post-inflation context, while opposition groups like the PJD seek to capitalize on urban discontent and mobilize their base, disillusioned by past local governance failures.

Balancing the census’s demographic realities with territorial equity will require precision from policymakers. Though no official electoral map revisions have been announced, the new population data has set the stage for an inevitable technical and political debate ahead of the 2026 legislative elections.