In Mali, the numbers tell a story that goes far beyond a temporary food shortage. The World Food Programme (WFP) has warned of a 73.6 million dollar funding gap to keep its operations running until February 2027. But that shortfall is only one part of a much bigger picture: persistent poverty, displacement and fragile livelihoods are locking millions of people into a daily struggle for survival.

The funding shortfall that could determine the next two years

The WFP estimates it needs 81.2 million dollars to continue its interventions in Mali through February 2027. Only 7.6 million dollars is currently available. That leaves a gap of 73.6 million dollars, raising fears of further cuts to food aid and, eventually, the suspension of humanitarian flights starting in January 2027.

Behind these amounts lies a reality measured in millions of people. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), around 1.56 million Malians faced acute food insecurity between June and August 2026. That figure covers people classified in phase 3 or higher of the Cadre Harmonisé — a crisis level requiring urgent action. Among them, nearly 57,000 people were in phase 4, an emergency situation.

This is not a new phenomenon. FAO data show that the number of people in acute food insecurity during the lean season rose from about 1.52 million in 2025 to 1.56 million in 2026. That increase may look modest in absolute terms, but it is happening in a country already grappling with deep poverty and rapid population growth.

Nearly one in two Malians lives below the national poverty line

The monetary poverty indicator reveals another dimension of the crisis. World Bank data show that 45.5% of Mali’s population lived below the national poverty line in 2021, up from 42.1% in 2018. The number of poor people was estimated at 9.7 million — roughly 1.4 million more than in 2018.

It is important to distinguish this indicator from the one used to measure extreme poverty internationally. Using the international threshold of 3 dollars per day in 2021 purchasing power parity, the World Bank estimates that 36.1% of Mali’s population is affected. This figure should not be directly compared to the 45.5% rate based on the national poverty line.

The distinction matters: the two numbers do not measure exactly the same thing. But they converge on one point — a huge share of the population has very limited resources to cope with shocks that hit households.

Humanitarian aid reaches only a fraction of those in need

One of the most revealing findings about the current situation concerns the gap between needs and the assistance actually received.

A WFP assessment conducted in June 2026 found that 40% of households needed humanitarian assistance. In the three months before the survey, only 4% of households had actually received aid.

In other words, the problem is not just the number of people considered poor or exposed to hunger: it is also the ability of the humanitarian system to reach the populations that need it.

The regions of Ménaka, Gao, Timbuktu, Mopti and Ségou are among the areas where the deterioration in food security is particularly marked. Conflicts, population displacement, difficulties in humanitarian access and disruptions to economic and agricultural activities are worsening existing vulnerabilities.

A crisis that goes beyond food alone

In Mali, poverty and food insecurity reinforce each other. The World Bank notes that poverty is especially high in rural areas, where it combines with heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture. In its 2025 analysis, the institution estimated that national poverty had remained around 45% over a long period, while climate shocks and seasonality could further worsen difficulties during the lean season.

Displacement adds another layer. The WFP reports more than 290,000 refugees and over 400,000 internally displaced people living in Mali — populations particularly exposed to the loss of their livelihoods and to dependence on humanitarian aid.

Demographic pressure complicates the equation further. Mali’s population is estimated at 25.2 million in 2025, with annual growth of nearly 2.9%, according to the World Bank.

The risk of another sharp decline

The WFP funding gap comes at a time when needs remain enormous. A sustained reduction in humanitarian operations could have particularly severe consequences for households that already have little margin to absorb rising prices, a poor harvest, displacement or the loss of income.

The available figures do not tell a single crisis story, but several overlapping realities: 9.7 million poor people according to the latest figure based on the national threshold, 1.56 million people facing acute food insecurity during the last lean season, and 40% of households reported as needing humanitarian assistance in the June 2026 assessment.

In this context, the 73.6 million dollars the WFP is seeking is not just an accounting deficit. It represents the difference between available resources and the means needed to respond to a crisis that already affects millions of people. The key question for the coming months is whether humanitarian funding will keep aid flowing at a time when needs remain high.

By Boureima Amadou — Reporter