Ten months after being ousted by the military, Umaro Sissoco Embaló is preparing a return to Guinea-Bissau. The former president, now living in exile, has declared his candidacy for the presidential election scheduled for December 6, 2026. It is a dramatic comeback bid in a country where the disputed 2025 vote remains unresolved and where the army still wields decisive influence over political life.

A candidacy that raises more questions than answers

The announcement carries symbolic weight and a political challenge in equal measure. Embaló, who was toppled on November 26, 2025, in a military coup, has confirmed his intention to return home and run for the presidency again. His return is expected on October 4. The former head of state aims to re-enter the electoral arena less than a year after being forced from power.

“I will be a candidate,” he stated. The December 6 vote is officially meant to end the military transition and restore an elected civilian government. But behind that electoral horizon lies a far more sensitive question: under what conditions can Embaló actually compete, and what role will he play in a political landscape that has been profoundly reshaped since his overthrow?

The coup that followed a fiercely contested election

To understand this candidacy, one must go back to November 26, 2025. Three days earlier, Bissau-Guineans had voted in a highly contested presidential and legislative election. Embaló, running for a second term, and his main rival, Fernando Dias, both claimed victory.

On November 26, as the electoral commission was due to publish the first provisional results the following day, soldiers seized control of state institutions. Embaló was arrested and the electoral process was suspended. General Horta N’Tam, then chief of staff and a close ally of Embaló, was subsequently installed as transitional president.

The junta justified its intervention as necessary to preserve national security and prevent an alleged destabilization plot involving, according to the military, figures linked to drug trafficking. No public evidence has independently substantiated that accusation.

The coup also destroyed the electoral process. The electoral commission said tally sheets, computers and servers containing voting data were seized or destroyed. It is therefore now impossible to officially know the outcome of the November 2025 presidential election.

That absence of results continues to fuel controversy. Embaló’s opponents have accused him of orchestrating or facilitating the coup himself in order to block the release of results that would have been unfavorable to him. Several observers have raised this hypothesis, but it has never been established as fact. The close ties between Embaló and General Horta N’Tam have nonetheless fed suspicion.

A political system transformed in ten months

Guinea-Bissau has changed profoundly over the past ten months. On August 30, 2026, the junta held a constitutional referendum that, according to provisional results, approved a new constitution significantly expanding presidential powers. The president will be able to appoint and dismiss the prime minister and government and, under certain circumstances, dissolve parliament.

The reform came just months before the presidential election. The opposition, notably the PAIGC, had called for a boycott of the referendum, denouncing a process held under military control. The vote was nonetheless declared approved with around 70 percent of ballots cast.

Another potentially decisive factor for Embaló: the new constitution requires presidential candidates to have resided continuously in the country for the five years preceding the election. It also imposes a deposit of 50 million CFA francs. These new rules could therefore become a major obstacle for the former president, who has been in exile since his overthrow.

Can Embaló realistically reclaim power?

The question now is less about his return than about his ability to turn it into an electoral victory. Several factors pull in different directions.

On one hand, Embaló retains significant political networks. His former party, Madem G15, remains a force in the political landscape, while several figures from his circle continued to hold responsibilities during the transition. The military leadership itself is headed by a former close associate, even though the junta now claims to be conducting an independent transition.

On the other hand, his image is deeply controversial. His opponents accuse him of having weakened democratic institutions during his term and of governing amid repeated tensions with parliament and the opposition. Before the 2025 coup, the country had already experienced several political and military crises.

Above all, one essential indicator is missing: the result of the November 2025 presidential election. With no official results published, it is impossible to say whether Embaló had a majority at the time or, conversely, was on the verge of losing. The contradictory victory claims made at the time by Embaló and Fernando Dias do not constitute a reliable electoral measure.

The only certainty is that Embaló’s announced return opens a new phase of uncertainty. Its success will depend notably on his eligibility under the new constitutional rules, the effective organization of the vote, the opposition’s ability to regroup, and the army’s stance.

December 6 could thus become a decisive moment for Guinea-Bissau. But before knowing whether Umaro Sissoco Embaló can reclaim the presidency, a more fundamental question remains: will the country this time manage to hold an election whose results are actually published and recognized by all political actors?

After decades of coups, institutional crises and disputed ballots, that is probably where the true significance of the December vote will be decided.

By Boureima Amadou — Reporter