Mali’s conflict: the battle for political legitimacy

The security situation in Mali is deteriorating rapidly and alarmingly. Coordinated jihadist offensives and separatist movements in the country’s north have placed the Malian state under multifaceted strategic pressure. Yet, beyond these visible conflicts, a deeper, more profound shift is occurring. Less dramatic than the battles themselves, this evolution is far more decisive: the conflict’s center of gravity is moving. What is unfolding in Mali today extends well beyond a mere military confrontation.

For over a decade, the Malian crisis has primarily been analyzed through a framework dominated by security concerns. The intervention of national forces, successively supported by various international partners, aimed for stabilization through military means. While this strategy managed to contain certain short-term dynamics, it failed to produce the anticipated structural changes.

Political Vacuum Filled by Armed Groups

Instead, this approach fostered a strategic illusion: that restoring security would automatically precede the return of the state. However, the Malian experience now demonstrates the opposite. A state can maintain its military projection capacity while progressively losing political, social, and symbolic control over its territory.

In numerous areas across central and northern Mali, the reality of power has profoundly transformed. The state has not simply withdrawn; it has been replaced. Various armed groups, both jihadist and non-jihadist, have gradually established alternative forms of authority. To varying degrees, they now provide essential functions such as local security, conflict arbitration, economic regulation, and social oversight.

This recomposition of power is not solely based on coercion. It also arises from a growing disconnect between the central state and segments of the population. In these territories, the absence of public services, the weakness of administrative relays, and the perception of a distant authority have created an opening that other actors have skillfully filled. In politics, a vacuum never truly exists; it is always occupied.

The Decisive Battle: Legitimacy

The Malian crisis has now entered a phase where the military dimension, while indispensable, is no longer sufficient. The true confrontation is unfolding elsewhere: in the capacity to generate legitimacy.

Who genuinely protects the populace? Who administers justice perceived as equitable? Who embodies credible and predictable authority? These questions now shape local choices. In this context, military superiority no longer guarantees victory. It can even prove to have no lasting effect if not accompanied by a political and social re-engagement.

Rethinking the Strategy

Breaking free from the current impasse requires a paradigm shift. It is no longer solely about reclaiming positions or neutralizing armed groups. It involves rebuilding a state presence capable of sustainably embedding itself within the territories. This demands an integrated approach, meticulously interweaving security, political, and social dimensions. The state must reassert its visibility, not solely through its force, but through its demonstrable utility.

This pathway involves:

• Effectively restoring sovereign functions closer to the people.
• Re-engaging territories with credible administrative and social initiatives.
• Rebuilding local networks of trust.
• Regaining the narrative and shaping public perceptions.

In essence, the goal is not just to re-establish state authority, but to render it legitimate once more.

Mali is not an isolated case; it serves, in many respects, as a proving ground for the evolving nature of contemporary conflicts across the Sahel. In this vast region, competition among various actors extends beyond military clashes. It encompasses a broader struggle for societal organization, territorial control, and influence over communities. This fundamental shift mandates a re-evaluation of traditional concepts of warfare and stabilization. Power is no longer solely defined by coercive capacity, but by the ability to establish an accepted social order.

An Unresolved Equation

The Malian crisis has entered a critical phase where the decisive issue is no longer merely territorial control, but the rebuilding of the state’s political and social authority. The true battle is no longer fought solely on the front lines. It is waged in the state’s capacity to regain legitimacy, usefulness, and acceptance among the populace. Across the Sahel, no territory remains vacant indefinitely; when a state recedes, other actors step in. However, Mali’s lasting stabilization also hinges on the gradual re-integration of political processes into the national framework.

This outlook remains particularly intricate given the weakening of political parties, the marginalization or exile of many civilian figures, and the pervasive focus on security-centric approaches. The core challenge is therefore not simply how to regain territorial control, but under what conditions a credible political space can be forged to support state reconstruction and restore a shared sense of legitimacy.