Economic rivalry fuels violent escalation in West Africa

The sudden assault on Niamey’s international airport on June 18, 2026, has cast a dark shadow over ongoing diplomatic efforts in West Africa. As negotiations between Bénin and Niger neared a critical phase, the violent incident abruptly disrupted the fragile process of border reopening. While the immediate focus remains on security, deeper economic motives may lie at the heart of the attack.

Suspicions of state-sponsored terrorism

Investigative assessments suggest that the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) executed the strike. However, the precision and timing of the operation raise suspicions that the group may have acted as a proxy force for external state actors. Among the most frequently cited names in diplomatic circles is that of Faure Gnassingbé, President of Togo, accused of orchestrating the attack to derail the pending agreement between Bénin and Niger.

The port of Lomé: a strategic prize in regional competition

To grasp the full implications of this crisis, one must shift attention from security concerns to the economic map of the Sahel. Since the closure of the Bénin–Niger border, the Port Autonome de Lomé (PAL) has emerged as Niamey’s lifeline, handling a surge in transit trade and reaping substantial financial gains. A resumption of normal relations between Bénin and Niger would redirect this trade to Cotonou’s port, which is geographically closer and more efficient for Niamey. For Togo, this would result in a catastrophic loss of revenue, potentially amounting to billions of CFA francs.

The attack on Niamey’s airport appears calculated to reignite mistrust between Bénin and Niger, undermining their rapprochement. Were Togo’s involvement to be confirmed, it would signal a dangerous escalation—where commercial rivalries no longer remain confined to economic spheres but spill into violent confrontation.

By Boureima Amadou — Reporter