Clash between jihadist factions for sambisa forest control intensifies

Sambisa Forest: A Battleground Between Militant Rivals

The once-thriving Sambisa Forest, spanning 60,000 square kilometers in Nigeria’s northeastern region, has transformed into a contested stronghold. Once a haven for wildlife and ecotourism, the area now bears the scars of relentless conflict. The dense vegetation, which once sheltered antelopes and elephants, now conceals the movements of two jihadist factions locked in a deadly struggle for dominance.

The Sunni Group for Preaching and Jihad (JAS), the splinter faction of Boko Haram, and the Islamic State’s West Africa Province (ISWAP)—also known as the Province of Africa de l’Ouest de l’État islamique (PAOEI)—have been locked in a power struggle since their 2016 split. Recent clashes signal a dangerous escalation, with both groups vying for control over strategic terrain.

Why Sambisa remains a critical battleground

The forest’s vast expanse and impenetrable canopy make it an ideal sanctuary for insurgents. Its location provides a launchpad for attacks on nearby towns and a gateway to smuggling routes, including those used for illicit trade and human trafficking. Control over Sambisa means influence over vast swaths of territory and the ability to project power across the Lake Chad Basin.

Rival Factions Adapt to a Changing Conflict

Analysts tracking the insurgency note that despite their ideological differences, both groups have demonstrated remarkable resilience. Zagazola Makama, a Borno-based security analyst, highlights that recent battles have seen heavy casualties on both sides, though exact figures remain unverified. The intensity of these clashes underscores a shifting dynamic—one where competition between the factions has evolved into a parallel conflict against government forces.

The rivalry between JAS and ISWAP is not merely ideological but strategic. While JAS has gained notoriety for mass abductions, looting, and indiscriminate violence, ISWAP has focused on establishing rudimentary governance structures, taxing local populations, and consolidating territorial control. Despite their differences, both groups share a common disregard for civilian lives, perpetuating a cycle of suffering across Nigeria and neighboring regions.

Military Pressure and Unpredictable Shifts

The Nigerian military, supported by the Multinational Joint Task Force, has intensified counterterrorism operations in recent months. However, the fragmentation of insurgent groups has created new challenges. Taiwo Adebayo, a senior analyst at the African Security Studies Institute, argues that security strategies must adapt to treat JAS as an independent threat rather than merely a weakened rival of ISWAP.

«The Nigerian military’s preoccupation with ISWAP’s attacks on military installations has inadvertently allowed JAS to regroup, » Adebayo explains. «This has created a dangerous imbalance, where the two factions now compete for influence rather than collaborate against state forces. »

The analyst warns that unless this dynamic is addressed, the conflict could enter a prolonged stalemate, with neither group able to achieve decisive victory.

Territorial Limits and Future Prospects

Malik Samuel, a senior researcher with Good Governance Africa, suggests that ISWAP’s ambitions may be constrained by JAS’s entrenched position in key areas like Barwa, where the faction’s leadership is believed to operate. This territorial proximity ensures that confrontations will remain frequent, as both groups vie for resources and control.

«ISWAP’s numerical advantage, broader territorial reach, and foreign fighter networks give it a significant edge over JAS in most engagements, » Samuel notes. «However, JAS’s localized knowledge of Sambisa’s terrain and its ability to blend into rural communities make it a persistent thorn in the side of both militants and security forces. »

A Conflict with Regional Consequences

Since Boko Haram’s insurgency began in 2009, the violence has spilled across borders into Cameroon, Niger, and Chad, leaving over 40,000 civilians dead and displacing more than 2 million people. The struggle for Sambisa is not just a local skirmish but a microcosm of a broader regional crisis, one that demands innovative strategies to break the cycle of violence.

As the factions continue to adapt, the people of northeastern Nigeria remain caught in the crossfire, their lives dictated by the whims of armed groups fighting for dominance in one of Africa’s most volatile landscapes.