Senegal: the evolving power struggle between Diomaye Faye and Sonko

Across Dakar, from the hushed corridors of government ministries to the bustling popular neighborhoods, a consensus had emerged over recent months: the powerful alliance that propelled Senegal’s opposition to leadership was faltering. The resonant campaign slogan, “Diomaye mooy Sonko, Sonko mooy Diomaye” (meaning “Diomaye is Sonko, and Sonko is Diomaye” in Wolof), gradually lost its potency. With each passing week, this once-unifying phrase morphed into a stark declaration: “Diomaye is no longer Sonko,” as both figures increasingly made little effort to conceal their growing differences.

Indeed, the working relationship between President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and his Prime Minister, Ousmane Sonko, had become fraught with numerous points of contention, rendering their shared governance at the state’s highest level nearly untenable. Discrepancies in approach, intense struggles for influence, rivalries among their respective inner circles, and a clear competition for ultimate leadership in the exercise of power all signaled that, eventually, one leader would have to yield.

In his decision to dismiss the Prime Minister, the Senegalese head of state undeniably sought to assert his presidential authority. However, this move may also represent a significant miscalculation.

Ousmane Sonko’s calculated maneuver

For many months, Ousmane Sonko appeared to be systematically testing the boundaries of his relationship with Bassirou Diomaye Faye, pushing it toward an inevitable breaking point. The Pastef leader understood that a sustained coexistence with a president determined to fully assert his executive authority was unsustainable. Crucially, Sonko also recognized that in any direct confrontation, the emotional and activist allegiance within the party would likely remain firmly on his side.

The core of Sonko’s strategy lay in this dilemma: compelling Diomaye Faye to choose between upholding his institutional authority and preserving the political unity of the Pastef movement.

By remaining within the government while simultaneously showcasing his political independence, Ousmane Sonko steadily made the situation untenable. Every ambiguous statement, every public disagreement, and every subtle reminder of his standing as the movement’s historical figurehead intensified the pressure on the head of state.

The Senegalese President found himself ensnared in a no-win scenario. Should he tolerate this dual leadership, he risked appearing as a weakened president, unable to fully exercise his authority. Conversely, by dismissing his Prime Minister, he risked being perceived by a segment of the party’s activists as the one who shattered Pastef’s foundational pact and betrayed the movement’s original ethos.

In essence, Ousmane Sonko stood to gain significantly from his removal. A forced departure now allows him to fully reclaim the role he consistently held for a substantial portion of the base: the historical leader, the political martyr, and the central figure advocating for a break from the old system.

The allure of new advisors

Bassirou Diomaye Faye may have inadvertently walked into a second trap. Since his ascension to power, a fresh cohort of advisors has gathered around the President. This group includes political strategists, former supporters of the Macky Sall administration, opportunistic dignitaries, and professional political defectors. Their consistent message to him is uniform: “You are the President. You must demonstrate who is in charge.”

Such rhetoric naturally appeals to presidential authority. Within Senegal’s institutional framework, it indeed seems irregular for a Prime Minister to project an image of political parity with the head of state. However, Bassirou Diomaye Faye might benefit from scrutinizing the true motivations of these newfound allies.

One might ask: where were these individuals when Ousmane Sonko and Diomaye Faye were confronting the judicial apparatus of the Macky Sall regime? Where were they during the periods of imprisonment, the violently suppressed protests, and the systematic demonization campaigns against Pastef? Many were, at that time, quietly enjoying the privileges of the very system they now denounce with a sudden, fervent revolutionary zeal. This is a common theme in African current affairs and African governance, where political allegiances can shift dramatically.

These seasoned political shapeshifters possess an acute ability to identify nascent divisions, exacerbate rivalries, and fuel competing egos. Their political survival frequently hinges on creating disunity among former comrades-in-arms. The annals of African political history are replete with similar instances: hopeful movements that ascend to power only to be weakened less by external opposition than by their own internal fractures. This pattern is a recurring challenge in continent news and African governance.

The peril for Diomaye Faye is significant: to believe that those who encouraged his break with Ousmane Sonko are genuinely committed to consolidating his power. Many of these figures may primarily seek to weaken Pastef itself, thereby neutralizing the political project it represents.

The potential for Pastef’s fragmentation

The power struggle is now fully underway, and it could very well tip in Ousmane Sonko’s favor. The current political reality in Senegal is undeniable: Pastef holds a dominant position on the national stage, bolstered by an exceptional grassroots presence, a mobilized youth base, and a compelling narrative forged during years of confrontation with the Macky Sall regime. Within this dynamic, Sonko remains the pivotal figure.

Even when legally barred and absent from presidential ballots, the hope for change largely coalesced around Sonko. A significant portion of public opinion viewed Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s election as a proxy victory for Ousmane Sonko.

While the President certainly possesses institutional legitimacy, his former Prime Minister retains formidable popular and activist legitimacy. In any future political or electoral confrontation, this factor could prove decisive.

Should Pastef ultimately fracture into a faction loyal to Diomaye Faye and another aligned with Ousmane Sonko, there is no guarantee that the head of state would emerge victorious. Numerous party executives, elected officials, and grassroots activists might be inclined to follow the individual they still perceive as the movement’s central figure. Bassirou Diomaye Faye currently lacks a sufficiently structured, autonomous political apparatus to counterbalance the enduring influence of his former mentor. This represents his primary vulnerability in the ongoing Senegal political power struggle.

The dilemma of political successors

The inherent challenge for many political successors is their eventual desire to establish their own independent standing. This is a natural human inclination. No president can indefinitely accept being perceived as a mere figurehead, lacking true authority.

Beyond the personalities involved, the very coherence of the Pastef movement’s overarching project is now under scrutiny. The movement originated from a promise of fundamental change: virtuous governance, national sovereignty, social justice, and the restoration of national dignity. However, ego-driven conflicts frequently possess the destructive power to divert political movements from their initial, noble missions.

Perhaps the greatest irony in this entire affair is that Pastef’s adversaries may ultimately benefit from a crisis they did not even have to instigate themselves.