In Niamey, a pattern of political upheaval unfolds with tragic predictability, a scenario almost mechanical in its regularity. While leaders and faces may change, the fundamental methods of assuming power often remain disarmingly consistent.

When the sounds of heavy gunfire and explosions once again shattered the night around Niamey’s presidential palace and airbase, the population collectively held its breath, gripped by a painful sense of déjà vu. Whether these incidents stem from frustrated garrison mutinies or deep-seated rivalries within the military hierarchy, they are never mere accidents. Instead, they serve as direct symptoms of the very architecture underpinning regimes born from coups d’état.

Even three years after the civilian government was overthrown in July 2023, the historical narrative remains stark: leaders who seize power through force are almost invariably threatened or ultimately displaced by similar means.

This inherent vulnerability is rooted in precise structural and political factors that consistently exhaust military juntas:

The fatigue of prolonged transition

A three-year transition period can feel like an eternity for a populace initially asked for a temporary sacrifice. As months turn into years, the initial public enthusiasm or tolerance often gives way to legitimate frustration. When a period of exceptional rule extends indefinitely, the absence of a clear democratic horizon transforms promises of national renewal into a simple exercise of power retention.

The stark reality of security challenges

At the core of the coup’s justification in Niger lay the promise to “restore security and dignity.” However, governance by decree cannot erase the harsh realities on the ground. When, despite sovereignist rhetoric and shifts in geopolitical alliances, security pledges are slow to materialize, and soldiers continue to fall on the front lines, the narrative begins to unravel. Doubt first infiltrates the ranks of the armed forces, then spreads to the streets.

Force as the sole arbiter of succession

By dismantling constitutional order, a military power like the CNSP inadvertently validates force as the only legitimate means to resolve political disputes. When General Tiani demonstrates that a rifle can secure the presidential seat, he unintentionally teaches the same lesson to colonels, captains, or rival factions within the armed forces. The military ceases to be a monolithic shield and transforms into a chessboard of internal rivalries. According to official reports, the events of August 28 were indeed a mutiny within the armed forces.

From Seyni Kountché to Ibrahim Baré Maïnassara, and including Salou Djibo, Niger’s political history consistently illustrates that power gained through the barrel of a gun inherently carries the seeds of its own challenge.

The recent gunfire near the seat of power is merely an echo of this enduring political principle. Until legitimacy is firmly anchored in a republican and civil pact, power in Niamey will remain vulnerable to the slightest spark emanating from the barracks. For a weapon holds no eternal allegiance: the very instrument that installs a leader today remains precisely the same one that threatens to unseat him tomorrow.

By Boureima Amadou — Reporter