Cameroun’s public investment plunges, jeopardizing development goals

The pace of public investment budget execution in Cameroun dramatically slowed during the first quarter of 2026, marking a particularly difficult start to the fiscal year. By the end of March, authorized investment expenditures barely reached 45 billion FCFA, a sharp contrast to the 175.5 billion recorded in the same period a year prior. This represents a substantial decrease of 130.5 billion FCFA in absolute terms, translating to a 74.4% year-on-year contraction. Consequently, the execution rate for investment credits allocated in the 2026 finance law fell to a mere 2.5%, an unusually low figure even for a quarter traditionally characterized by slower activity.

PROBMIS IA: a technical transition stalls spending

The Ministry of Finance (Minfi) attributes a significant portion of this slowdown to the transition of budget management to a new IT platform, denominated PROBMIS IA, which became operational at the start of the fiscal year. The Medium-Term Economic and Budgetary Programming Document (DPBMT) for 2027-2029, prepared ahead of the Budget Orientation Debate, explicitly acknowledges that technical challenges associated with this shift hindered the processing of financial operations. Even current expenditures fared only marginally better, achieving an execution rate of 14.7% by the end of March.

The impact has been particularly severe on investments funded through domestic resources, which saw an execution rate of just 0.3%. Investments supported by external funding performed slightly better at 5.2%, though this figure remains modest. Essentially, the spending pipeline became severely congested precisely when government departments needed to initiate their first commitments of the year. Minfi has accepted responsibility for a slower-than-usual start to budget implementation.

External funding: a significant decline in disbursements

Beyond the technical friction, Cameroun faced a less favorable environment for resource mobilization. Loans and grants effectively secured by the end of March amounted to just 137.5 billion FCFA, a sharp decrease from 327.6 billion FCFA recorded during the same period last year. This represents a staggering drop of 190.1 billion FCFA, or a 58% year-on-year reduction. This shortfall impacted both project-specific loans and grants, as well as general budget support.

A closer look reveals that project loans attracted only 39.4 billion FCFA, significantly below the quarterly forecast of 206.7 billion FCFA, achieving a realization rate of just 19%. Grants remained at a meager 0.1 billion FCFA, far short of the anticipated 18.5 billion FCFA, while no budget support disbursements were registered throughout the period. This combination inherently impacts investments reliant on external funding, whose timelines are directly linked to the pace of donor execution.

Overall, the budgetary resources mobilized by the Camerounian state reached 1,331.4 billion FCFA by the end of March, against an annual target of 8,683.9 billion FCFA. The achievement rate stood at 15.3%, down from 19.6% a year earlier. Regarding expenditures, total authorizations reached 1,547.1 billion FCFA, a 2.9% decrease compared to the 1,593.2 billion FCFA recorded the previous year. Current expenditures, excluding interest, also fell by 80.5 billion FCFA, settling at 566.1 billion FCFA.

Tangible risks for SND30’s flagship projects

While the first quarter typically sees lower consumption of investment credits due to procurement lead times and the gradual ramp-up of construction projects, the severity of this year’s decline far surpasses normal patterns. Should such delays persist, they would place significant strain on the timelines for critical infrastructure projects outlined in the National Development Strategy 2020-2030 (SND30).

Sectors heavily reliant on public contracts are now on the front lines. Construction and public works, building materials, engineering, and transportation all depend critically on the state’s ability to authorize equipment expenditures within scheduled periods. A sustained execution rate below projections would inevitably impact the cash flow of contractors and the overall domestic economic activity.

The immediate challenge for Camerounian authorities is to swiftly resolve the technical impediments of PROBMIS IA and to accelerate the mobilization of external financing. These actions are crucial to recover the ground lost over the past three months. Achieving the 2026 objectives will largely hinge on this dual capacity for adjustment.