Ivory coast cocoa export outlook shaken by el nino fears

The promising start to Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa export campaign—with nearly 1 million tonnes already sold under contracts for the 2026-27 harvest—could face disruptions due to the anticipated arrival of El Niño in July, industry experts and agricultural commodity traders warn. To manage supply, the Conseil du Café et du Cacao (CCC) in Abidjan has raised its premium on additional sales from zero to $135 per tonne above the futures price, according to sector insiders.

Market momentum meets caution

Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s top cocoa producer, is witnessing strong demand that is expected to tighten further when the new harvest begins on 1 September. While sales for the upcoming season have already reached between 950,000 and 1 million tonnes, authorities have chosen to slow the pace. « We’ve prioritized prudence over speed, » confided a CCC spokesperson.

Trading firms forecast exports of 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes for the year, justifying the CCC’s decision to hike the premium. « The market conditions allow them to be more assertive, » noted a senior executive at a major cocoa trading company. « There’s no need to lower the premium to secure deals. »

climate threat looms over production

This positive momentum, however, could be derailed by El Niño, which may trigger droughts in key cocoa-growing nations like Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria—posing a serious threat to output.

The most pressing concern for exporters in 2027 isn’t climate alone but the risk of neglected plantations and soaring fertilizer costs. Many cocoa farms in Côte d’Ivoire are aging, plagued by disease, and struggling to maintain productivity. « El Niño isn’t the biggest worry—I’m far more concerned about the lack of fertilizers and crop protection products, » stressed the head of an Abidjan-based export firm. « Without these inputs, even favorable weather won’t save the harvest. »