Can pastef survive the internal split in Senegal’s political landscape

The dismissal of Ousmane Sonko from the Prime Minister’s office and the subsequent restructuring of the executive branch have ushered in a fresh chapter in Senegal’s political saga.

For the first time since Bassirou Diomaye Faye assumed office in 2024, the Pastef-Les Patriotes party faces an internal crisis. Key figures have defected, strategic disagreements have surfaced between President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and party leader Ousmane Sonko, and the creation of a new political party aligned with the President has been announced.

At first glance, this could signal a weakening of Pastef’s influence. Yet a deeper analysis reveals a more nuanced reality. The primary trend is the erosion of the party’s elite cadre, with ministers, advisers, directors-general, MPs, and members of the National Political Bureau opting to align with President Faye rather than adhere to Sonko’s directives.

In political science, this reflects a classic tension between legal-rational legitimacy, rooted in the exercise of institutional power, and charismatic legitimacy, derived from the exceptional qualities of a leader. Since his election, President Bassirou Diomaye Faye has drawn authority from the Constitution and his presidential mandate.

Ousmane Sonko, by contrast, continues to rely on a decade-long charismatic bond with grassroots supporters. The dissidents argue that President Faye now embodies the core ‘Project’ that Pastef was founded upon. Some even criticize Sonko’s excessive personalization of the party, citing messianic tendencies, weak internal democracy, and decision-making concentrated around a single figure—the ‘boss.’ In this view, loyalty to the Project supersedes loyalty to an individual.

However, this interpretation clashes with another reality: most departures involve public officials rather than rank-and-file party members. Many of those joining the new presidential party are administrative cadres or leaders whose political visibility stems from their ties to Pastef—and specifically to Ousmane Sonko.

The dissidents’ lack of political grounding

A significant portion of public opinion views these defectors as ‘political unknowns’—figures whose prominence remains tied to Sonko’s leadership. Few possess a local electoral base or territorial presence comparable to major Senegalese political figures. Their political capital is predominantly institutional, not electoral. This distinction between institutional and militant capital is critical: the dissidents hold power today because they are part of the state’s machinery.

Pastef, by contrast, remains a mass movement, sustained by thousands of militants who fund the party through membership fees and ensure its presence across Senegal’s hinterlands. In this light, the loss of elite figures does not necessarily translate into a loss of organizational capacity. Recent events support this view. The June 6 party congress, which unanimously reaffirmed Sonko as leader, and his June 7 mass rally at Dakar Arena were held without the dissidents—and dominated national headlines. Similarly, the July 4 membership drive sparked significant grassroots mobilization. Add to this the June 5 merger of sixty-plus parties with Pastef ahead of the congress, and the picture becomes clear: the party retains a mobilization capacity that transcends its institutional figures.

This resilience stems from Sonko’s charismatic legitimacy, rooted in the belief among supporters in his extraordinary qualities. Many Pastef militants don’t just identify as ‘Pastefian’ but as ‘Sonkists.’ This personalized political bond evokes comparisons to Abdoulaye Wade’s relationship with parts of the Senegalese Democratic Party (PDS) electorate. Yet Sonko’s phenomenon goes further: he has secured mayoral victories in 2022, propelled Bassirou Diomaye Faye to the presidency in 2024, and led a coalition to win 130 of 165 National Assembly seats. Such electoral dominance is unprecedented in modern Senegalese politics.

What future for the dissidents?

While it would be premature to dismiss the risks of fragmentation, any split in a dominant party can undermine cohesion, organizational efficiency, and government credibility. The emergence of a presidential party could lure elected officials seeking to preserve access to state resources—a common pattern in African political systems. The coexistence of two competing centers of legitimacy—one institutional (President Faye) and one partisan (Sonko’s Pastef)—could fuel prolonged tensions.

Yet, as matters stand, the dissidence appears to affect elites more than grassroots members. No mass exodus has been observed at the local level. The party’s identity, forged around militancy, economic patriotism, and popular mobilization, continues to anchor loyalty among supporters.

In short, the current crisis is less about Pastef’s collapse than a clash between two forms of legitimacy: President Faye’s legal-rational authority, derived from the presidency, and Ousmane Sonko’s charismatic legitimacy, rooted in an emotional and political bond with militants. The party’s future hinges on whether these forms of legitimacy can translate into enduring electoral strength.

The burning question now is: does Sonko’s ‘Joxogn’ still carry the same political weight? Can he still deliver electoral victories at the municipal, parliamentary, and presidential levels? The answer will determine not only Pastef’s fate but also the trajectory of Senegal’s party system in the years ahead.